Can You Ever Be Too Careful?: An Ode to Calculated Aggression
The following is inspired by the Coronavirus saga. Rather than explore the news and responses related to the events — -which would require some dialogue centered on pathology, confounding variables, and journalistic integrity — -we’ll springboard to a more intriguing discussion.
There’s been a lot of talk about whether governments have done enough to contain the spread of Coronavirus. Mass closures domestically have sparked conversation on the definition of “essential” businesses and services, with economic welfare and the loss of personal liberties taking center stage.
While discussing the national response to the pandemic with a friend, the following question came to mind:
“Can one ever be too cautious?”
Not pertaining to the Coronavirus containment plan, but in life in general.
[These are the kind of questions you should ask yourself every now and then, just to keep yourself honest. Introspection is a powerful tool.]
Carelessness is never a virtue. You must always be prudent and remain circumspect, taking stock of potential threats to your resources and well-being. Inattention magnifies vulnerabilities and the punches you don’t see coming land the hardest.
That said, there IS such a thing as too much caution. The line between “due diligence” and “timidity” is thin. Overprotecting against loss is insidious, lulling you into a dangerous sense of security. Yes, you’re less likely to absorb damage. Too much insulation, however, and you dampen the sound waves propagated by alarm bells — -the sirens of opportunity that exist in an imperfect society.
In a world of flawed actors and fractured scenery, the stories of our lives play out against less-than-ideal backdrops. Rarely will you be graced with gifts that demand nothing from you in return or pose no risk of loss. Preoccupation with security leaves fewer resources available to identify and actualize chances for gain.
It’s hard to grab the bull by the horns when you’ve got one hand glued to the “Panic” button.
The (silent) death of opportunities is the looming danger here. There comes a point, in every challenge, where you can have too much of a good thing. A juncture where you’ve waded well-past the point of diminishing returns into the land of negative outcomes. What was once a sound move, rewarding you with increase after every unit of effort, becomes an enemy stockpiling troops for a counter-attack.
Some real-world examples of overprotection….
1) Extended warranties and insurance plans on consumer electronics.
Extended warranties on consumer electronics are a terrible bet.
You fork over an additional 20% after your purchase to afford yourself peace of mind, but, in all likelihood, you’re throwing money away.
Most reputable companies include a Manufacturer’s Warranty that covers “Infant Mortality”, instances where a device fails early in its life cycle. If your device displays no defect in the first month, it’s likely to last for years (with careful use). If it does fail early on, you’ll receive a replacement at no cost.
And the kind of person who buys extended warranties is the same sort most likely to respect his item, handling it with kid gloves and, ironically, reducing the odds that the warranty ever gets exercised in the first place.
That extended warranty represents money you could have spent somewhere else.
Insurance policies on cell phones are similar folly. Get a strong case, don’t go swimming with your phone in your pocket, and the phone will last.
If the cost of replacing your phone keeps you up at night, it’s time to ask yourself some tough questions. Do you need to get the newest model every season? Do you need to stand in queue for hours on iPhone release day, like you’re on some bread line in communist Russia?
2) “If we save even one life, it’s worth it.”
We hear this one every now and then, especially in matters of life and death. The Coronavirus situation flashes a spotlight on it.
The Identifiable Victim Effect is at play here:
“We are more likely to provide assistance to easily-recognizable victims of a cause rather than anonymous ones.”
People are much more likely to spring into action to help victims of highly-publicized events rather than those suffering behind the scenes. Part of that is that those anonymous masses go unnoticed, garnering a fraction of the attention conferred by a place in the media spotlight.
Just because we do not see the impact on other stakeholders when decisions are made, doesn’t mean that impact isn’t registered.
Ideally, we’d be able to spend as much money as is available to ensure that every person has the lowest potential risk of mortality at any given moment in time. Whether that’s allocating unlimited spending to hospitals and scientific research or stripping our environments of every potential source of harm, we’d like to do everything we can.
Alas, that’s not possible in the real world.
Every entity — whether you’re the U.S. Government, a Fortune 500 company, or a single mom in Alabama — -has infinite challenges and finite resources to tackle them with. While we don’t reside in a fixed-pie universe, time and dollars distributed in one sector means fewer time and dollars spent somewhere else.
(Or, an increased deficit to be reckoned with years down the road.)
In the case of the Coronavirus, governments are going to have to decide what they’re willing to do without — -now and in the future — -if they want to shell out billions of dollars to cover every requested outlay nationwide.
Life is a series of trade-offs: Two million dollars spent addressing today’s concern means two million fewer dollars for future expenditures — -investments that might save tens of thousands of lives in the future.
Add to this concerns about personal preference and free will, and you’ve got questions that are not so easy to answer.
An everyday example of this “finite resources” conundrum: Car Safety.
For decades, the technology has existed that could reduce the risk of accident fatality for all but the most maniacal of drivers to near-zero levels.
So, why do car accident fatalities still dot the headlines?
Automobile manufacturers discovered that the price to create a car with that level of user protection would cost more than the average consumer is willing to pay. Customers would also have to sacrifice style for function.
People may pay lip service to the idea of safer vehicles, but money talks loudest: Car companies know us better than we know ourselves.
So, how do we avoid falling victim to the allure of overprotection?
Enter calculated aggression.
The beauty of our existence is we make the call at every turn. You can adopt your own standard, becoming the change you want to see in your environment.
Calculated aggression is a willingness to press your advantages when you’re most likely to come out ahead over the long run. It is not a “throw-caution-to-the wind” attitude. You’ve put in the work, surveyed the landscape, and are primed to advance, despite a lack of complete certainty.
On a micro level, this philosophy colors how I approach most situations.
I’m uber-competitive and enjoy games and sports, appreciating the real-world metaphors exemplified in a good contest.
Football is a favorite activity, one where there’s almost no luck involved. If you’re better than the man in front of you, it shows. My on-field nature is aggressive, exploiting weaknesses instead of sitting back and hoping others commit mistakes.
Much of that is the product of confidence from years of training and thinking about the game, as well as an appreciation for the skill divide between those who commit to improvement and those who don’t.
Deion Sanders dropping f̶o̶o̶t̶b̶a̶l̶l̶ life wisdom (19:07–20:05):
In the business world, where the rules and strategies are much less defined, calculated aggression pays even greater dividends.
During times of adversity, do not let panic and Herd Mentality seize the reins. Re-evaluate your situation: Do you need to adjust your behavior to account for new changes?
When you think at the margin, maintain a sense of purpose, and avoid letting fear dictate your decisions, you’d be surprised how far you can get. There’s all sorts of value waiting to be scooped up.
I have a friend who needs to get to the DMV before the end of May. Earlier this month — -after government officials were suggesting citizens avoid crowded areas, but before the closures of government buildings — -I told him he should make that trip to the DMV immediately.
You need to get there sometime in the next few weeks: Why not do it when the place is most likely to be empty?
Of course, he dragged his feet on it and now DMVs statewide are shut down.
You can bet that, as soon as the government gives the “ok” to return to life as normal, the DMV is going to be overrun like your local mall on Black Friday.
Uncertainty is an ideal climate for gaining ground, especially when those around you have trouble reading the room. Develop productive responses to fear and take advantage of opportunities others leave behind: You will never regret it.
Thoughts on the state of affairs? Drop me a line.
